In 2 days the next xbox will be shown to the world. It’ll be 8 years between generations and there is a lot of expectations for Microsoft to meet. Sony has already tipped their hand giving a look at the PS4 and Nintendo is off skipping stones in their own world. Here are my thoughts.

I’m surprised they’ve been able to keep quite for so long on the next xbox. It’s good and bad. The hype and hope is at an all time high, but so are the rumors. If you cruise the message boards, many people are convinced that the roles between MS and Sony have switched. Sony is set to make all the right moves for gamers and MS’s hubris will bring them crashing down into the dirt.

Here are the a few things I think we will definitely see on Tuesday. The actual console. They’ll show the physical box, controller, name the system and a “holiday 2013” release date. The next version of the kinect will also be talked about and it’s going to come with every xbox. The kinect has sold well and is a defining feature for MS, they put a lot of time and money into the tech and I think they’ve been able to greatly improve it in the last 3 years.

With E3 so close, they can’t show everything. They’re going to save some stuff for that press conference, which I think will be many 3rd party games and a real release date with launch titles.

That said, MS needs to be really careful how they approach this. The xbox started as a video game console and has been morphing into a set top box. Those set top box features will continue to grow, but at this point I think they really need to focus on the games portion of the machine. Talk about the guts, how it’s going to make games better. Show and talk about all first party stuff they are working on. Exclusives have fallen by the wayside for the xbox in the passed 2 years or so and MS really needs to drum up that kind of support and dedication to the machine. Give more reasons to get an xbox because the competition has closed all the gaps.

Xbox Live isn’t the draw the used to be. Sony has made some great moves and has improved year over year. MS has raised prices and added things that are available on many other products. Making people pay for stuff that you can get for free elsewhere isn’t a feature. The xbox platform has cemented itself as FPS juggernaut. The Call of Duty fan base is absolutely massive on xbox and pulls all those players in year after year with no effort. People pick up that game on xbox because all their friends play it on xbox. The early start, the much better Live service grabbed those guys in early and kept them there. There was no need for a person to drop hundreds of dollars to switch systems (look at how COD did on the WiiU, the online lobbies are basically a ghost town). That could change during this hardware switch. Then need to get people to stick with Live as their premiere online gaming experience by raising the quality and usefulness of the service in every way.

Xbox Live needs much bigger incentives to stay relevant. The friends list limit will definitely be raised to a huge amount. Paying for multiplayer is beyond lame, you can’t push netflix as something special any more. PS+ is a brilliant idea on Sony’s part. Reward your fans for a higher level of service and loyalty with great incentives. MS has a great thing with Xbox Music, but it’s completely worthless on the xbox. There is so much competition in the streaming music space that it’s hard to tear anyone away from the ecosystem they already use. Without paying for Gold AND a Xbox Music sub, you can’t use the Music service. It’s just empty, useless windows sitting in front of you. That service works on very little, it’s an incentive for Windows 8 and it needs to be an incentive on Xbox. It’s a cool and useful service that no one even thinks about because it’s behind so many walls. You get Gold, you should get full access to Music. Spotify is perfectly usable for free on PC for crying out loud. They should get it to stream music through the machine regardless of what you are doing on the box, don’t confine people to having just the Music app open, think multitasking. It makes it much more useful. MS has to bring Live to another level. Give big discounts, prizes, exclusives to your paying fan base. They love it and will feed into your eco system.

They also better learn from the RROD fiasco. Don’t build a piece of junk. I know that regardless of what they put out, I ain’t touching one for at least 6 months to make sure it’s not another faulty machine. They took a beating in the press, loss billions in repairs, they cannot afford to get through another piece of junk scenario. Make sure that thing is reliable before it goes out! Stress test the hell out of it and FIX what is wrong from the start!

I don’t expect to see much difference in the controller and I think they’d be wise to hold back on the “extra” feature talk for E3. Talk about a lot of games, it’s social features and a few apps like Skype and stuff that makes it a complete ecosystem. Be VERY clear about what does and doesn’t need a internet connection to work. I don’t think it’s going to be as doom and gloom as many thing because the internet infrastructure around the country, let alone around the world, varies greatly. It’s just not reliable or equal just a few towns apart. They’d lose a huge potential userbase if everything has to be online to work. I expect some sort of cable TV integration like google TV, but I don’t know how many people are look for or looking forward to that. Leave those big details for E3, win over your core video gamers first.